Good middle of the road titles are innovative ideas that don't have AAA budgets. What we are seeing on the market is more clones of AAA's then innovative ideas for the middle of the road.
On the sports side, I think that the decline is more related to a saturated market... Year after year a new sports title comes out that are only incremently better. And year after year we expect it to sell more... Eventually, it doesn't and people wonder why... EA & 2K may be better off to once every two or three years make a new release, and sell "roster" updates at a lesser price inbetween. That way they could couple a lot more incremental changes in each release and maybe some substantial ones that they would not have on a yearly cycle.
Also, the pricing strategy is flawed. If you are unsure whether to buy a title or not people usually wait... Why? Because if you wait out the publisher they will drop the price to a reasonable level (or get it used) so that you know it will be worth the money. How can Halo 3, Ratchet & Clank ToD, & Super Mario Galaxy be priced the same as Hour of Victory, Lair, and Far Cry Vengence on Wii when they come out?
Bottom line is that great, innovative, games will almost always do good with only a few exceptions...
I did some work for a major music publisher a few years back... Do you realize in music that only 1 out of every 43 artists that are signed to major album contract will actually make money? And that one makes enough money to pay for the other 42 that didn't... The gaming industry is headed in the same direction. Very few of a publisher's games will actually make money going forward... But, the games like BioShock, Super Mario Galaxy, Halo, Unreal Tournament, Ratchet & Clank, etc. will make enough to cover others.
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