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Should be close to 3 million, to be more exact 2.75 million.

If there's 4 million PS3's out in Japan by the time FFXIII is released (Which there should be) then it should sell 1.6 - 1.9 million copies first week, and it should be able to sell another million after that for a LTD sales of 2.75 million.

It's all in this thread