Mafia Game Thread Round 2

[zexen_lowe]

That Guy said:

zexen_lowe said:
Ok, now that the game is a go, I'll start my reasoning.

Last time, one of the (many) reasons we lost is that we started bad and picked one townie in the beginning. In the end, at the start we have nothing to go by, so we attack blindly. But this time, at least, we have something to go by. We know for sure that between the first 8 there are two mafia (that is, a probability of 25% of picking a mafia when choosing anyone), and the 9th player, That Guy (hence known as TG) is either a townie (to make 2 mafia and 7 townies) or a mafia (to make 3 mafia and 6 townies), thus a probability of 50% of picking a mafia.

I think that picking TG is a safer alternative, because there's another thing, we know that he's not the policeman or the medic, since those jobs were assigned before. Thus, in the worst case, we'll lynch a vanilla townie, and in the best case, we'll get rid of one mafia for free.

So, as it stands now

Vote: That Guy

 

Remember what happened last game?

The problem I see, Zexen, is if we mislynch, then we'll have 5 townies + 3 mafia. Night will come, and of course scum will not kill other scum, so automatically another townie will go down.

So by the second day, you have 4 townies vs. 3 mafia. if we make just ONE mistake on day two, the mafia will of course vote as a block to make a majority and end the game on a mislynch.  Remember that in the event where there mafia make up 50% of more, they win, since no majority can be made. We need to be REALLY careful this time.

Also remember I was the cop last game and was COMPLETELY thrown off when people started bandwagoning and voting randomly in the first round. I ended up investigating townies because they acted suspiciously. Lets try to at least have some basis for voting, as opposed to voting randomly.

 

Nope, wrong. If we lynch you and you turn to be townie, we'd have 5 townies and TWO mafia. If you turn to be mafia and we lynch you, we have 5 townies and TWO mafia. That's why I say that we don't lose anything by picking you