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I actually think that Wii will beat the PS3 Slim a couple of weeks after it comes out until September when big games like Ninja Gaiden Sigma II and Tales of Vesperia come out on PS3. They'll probably boost PS3 Slim back over Wii for a period of time like RE 5 and Yakuza 3 did in the Spring, then the Wii's big games will come out and pretty much keep Wii over PS3 until Final Fantasy XIII and Gran Turismo 5 come out. Japan should turn into a seesaw battle between Sony and Nintendo for the rest of the gen after that.

As popular as the NES was, after PC Engine was released it frequently beat Famicon in Japan, and unless there is a Wii price cut, Wii versus PS3 Slim will probably go about like Famicon versus PC Engine.