Say it ain't so.

[Dodece]

@dbot

I actually observed an entirely different phenomena. The ranks had two booms followed be a very massive bust. First with the announcement the ranks increased. Then with the holidays the ranks increased again. After six months however the ranks not only collapsed, but they fell to a lower level then existed to any point prior to the announcement.

There is a downside to the success, and that is once a solid victory is achieved members begin to leave in droves. The first to leave are mid level long time supporters who are vindicated, and who do not necessarily want to pile it on as it were. Then the late comers also tire of the sport. Specifically due to the fact that the other side is crippled, and cannot provide a any adequate form of defense. So they pull back from the engagement. No enemy means no sport.

The end result is then a very small very dedicated base. With little motivation to continue any form of assault on the opposition. They are basically fat, happy, and unconcerned. All of which makes them really kind and nice. At best you get little spurts of posting, but no real momentum posting.

So if history repeats itself look around at all the Sony loyalists prior to this announcement. They were highly motivated, and very much aggressive. Six months from now if the scenario plays out as some of them think it will you will half as many people then as you do now, and they are not going to be quite so vocal. Hell the opposition ranks will probably begin to rebuild in response to the conflict.

I wouldn't call the accounts made after the price cut last year ardent. I would call them what I said previously Summer Soldiers. They saw a opportunity to beat the crap out of people, and they joined in on the side that would do the beating. The most ardent accounts are the longer accounts. They are just less stupid or confrontational as a rule. Ardent members will actually go out to accumulate data, or look to deeper insights.

Now if it doesn't happen as most suspect this year then I have no clue at all what will happen. The debate can get real good if both platforms get close to one another, but if the PS3 doesn't manage to get into that area then I don't know. Even die hard fans need some motivation to keep going at some point. Perhaps the PS3 fan base would just go straight to deflation. Which is not necessarily bad either, because you get left with only the alphas, and they put up a real good argument.