I don't see the price cut being enough for Sony

[ph4nt]

binary solo said:

ph4nt said:
The price cut and slim won't save the PS3, it's far too late into the generation to do that now.

What it will do is heal the gaping wound and keep it competitive with the xbox 360 for the remainder of the generation, maybe allow Sony to start recouping some of the losses. I don't think it will ever close the gap unless it continues to sell long after the next generation starts, it's too large.

What's wrong with you people? The gap is only insurmountable while both systems are selling, if PS3 continues to sell after the 360 finishes (and there is no PS4 on the market) then the gap will disappear pretty quickly. The gap as of today is a squeak over 8 million, and this is likely to be as big as it gets. That's only 1 year of reasonably average sales. What does that mean? PS3 wil most likely only need a lifespan equal to the 360 to sell the same number of consoles. i.e. this generation is looking to be a tie for 2nd place.

7th generation consoles have only converted about 50% of the 6th gen market (if that). The battle for the remaining 50% is only just beginning. There is every reason to believe that the vast majority of the 50% that are yet to move to the new generation of consoles have an inherent preference for PS3. Why? because the only 6th gen console they own is a PS2. Sony has given up a lot of the early adopters to Wii and 360, but the mid- and late-cycle adopters are a totally different demographic. You can't easily make predictions about their buying decisions based on the buying decisions of the early adopters; especially now that price differentials are significantly less than they were in the past.

There's one thing I am certain of: PS3 sales will be significantly higher on an ongoing basis than they have ever been. There is simply no way sales levels will settle back to pre-slim/pre-price cut numbers.

I am also pretty confident that PS3 will outsell 360 world wide more weeks than 360 will outsell PS3 worldwide. I'm also pretty confident that we have seen the maximum PS3/360 gap. An Arcade pricecut will do almost nothing, unless it goes to <$100. Placing the Elite at $50 below the PS3 might make the closing of the gap slow to a trickle, but it won't reverse it back to a widening of the gap.

I think that possibly for the first time ever(?) PS3 weekly worldwide sales will regularly be higher than Wii weekly sales, but mostly when there are significant software releases for PS3 with nothing significant happening for the Wii (a bit like Japan was for early 2009). I think the PS3/Wii gap will continue to widen, but very slowly. Unless Wii goes down by $100 I don't see the PS3/Wii differential being affected any changes to Wii.

PS3 Slim won't see any further price cut for at least 2 years. Then it'll go to $199.

PS4 launches in 2013 at $349.

Finally there is a non-zero chance that everything I've written in this post will turn out to be wrong; which is actually a paradox now that I've written this sentence. Though I'm sure Teh C3ll can even handle this paradox.

I must say, you almost got me with this post, I was convinced until the last paragraph.