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350-400 Thousand. I feel that Japan alone will do between 80-120 thousand, EU is where Sony will see big sales, the countries there will take the most advantage of the new price right away, The USA however, will be surprisingly low for Sony for the price, and that's because I think people in the U.S are waiting for software for the PS3.
Pretty sure American will wait until the holidays before they really jump on the PS3, so around Christmas I expect huge numbers for the PS3 in the U.S, might even beat out EU Christmas numbers. Also, if movie studios really start pushing Bluray this holiday, Sony will have a hard time meeting demand in the west.