You make some good points Tres, I didn't take supply constraints in Q3 into account for the sales of Q4.
However I disagree with your point about there being a lack of Wii demand at the moment. Nintendo's own research shows that there are 150 Million consumers across the globe that would consider buying a Wii or DS system. That's where I believe Wii Sports Resort and Wii Fit Plus will help the most, to get these people to actually take that step and purchase one.
Also about NSMBWii, 2D Mario titles always sell better than their 3D counterparts because they are far more accessable and mass market friendly. Have you already forgotten that New Super Mario Bros on DS is still a system seller? Have you already forgotten that Mario Kart Wii is still a system seller? There are plenty of kart fans but it's selling to players who previously were not kart fans.
Finally have you already forgotten that NSMBWii will support 4 players for co-op and competitive play? The first time in a Mario title that more than one player can play through the campaign at once and with a ranking system. NSMBWii will be just like NSMB for DS only it'll sell even better, just like Mario Kart Wii has sold even better than it's DS counterpart.
You underestimate these titles I think.
One last point, Iwata wants this holiday to be the biggest in Nintendo's history, I think 3 million more Wii consoles sold these holidays than last year would cement that. I think if needed, a black Wii or bundles will be made available.
