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If you think of the 3rd party market for Wii in Japan like a treacherous forest ... difficult for third parties to navigate ... then MH3 is sorta like paving a road through that forest.

Even if it sell "only" 900k-1 million, that's setting up an audience for the future which Nintendo has to start building up.

Capcom could release another version of MH3 for the Wii next year too using the same engine and get another 600k-1 m in sales probably. They have so many versions on the PSP for instance.