Can the PS3 slim sell 10 million units by the end of the fiscal year?

[joeorc]

HappySqurriel said:

joeorc said:

HappySqurriel said:

No, it's not plausable that Sony will come close to their sales projections this year ...

In its best year to date the PS3 sold (roughly) 10 Million units, and sales so far this year had them at a pace to sell 7.5 to 8 Million units. To make their projections the PS3 would have to sustain nearly double its current sales level. This seems unlikely because $300 is still expensive for a console in most consumer's eyes (remember 80% of consoles were sold for less than $200 last generation), there are less expensive and more popular alternative systems, and people in general continue to cut back on unnecessary purchases due to the shape of the economy.

 

the problem is what is the demand for the ps3 at $299.00?

do alot of people want the PS3 but thought $399.00 was too much?

but those same consumer's may see the $299.00 for the PS3 the tipping point.

you point out sustain nearly double it's current sales level, but are you taking into account the markets that sony may be shipping ps3's into .

example in parts of the world the ps3 just was released in late 2008. expanding into new markets or sending more units into those markets that we do not have data on.

the very fact that Sony has been putting more investment as an example:

Blu-Ray into china..one of the best Blu-Ray player's on the market is indeed the PS3 and with a lower price the demand may be higher than it was before.

same with Japan..will the demand for the PS3 be in much higher demand than it has before and by how much.

that's alot of wild card's that we do not have the answer too just a Guess at this point.

Two things for you to consider ...

What portion of people who see value in a videogame system for $300 (or more) do not already own a XBox 360, PS3 or Wii? Are these people really going to be excited to buy a second console when they're worried about their personal finances?

Outside of Europe, Australia, North America and some areas of Asia the average person makes so little money that $300 is several years worth of savings ... Certainly, there are wealthy people in these regions but it is unlikely that any system would sell more than 1 Million units in these regions over a 5 year period.

 

Now, there will most certainly be a very large boost for the first 4 to 6 weeks as people who have waited for the price drop buy a PS3; and after that there will be a sustained boost as people are more likely to buy a $300 console for a game than they are to buy a $400 console to play a game. With this in mind, I doubt you will see twice as many people buy a PS3 from January through March of 2010 that we saw buy a PS3 from Jaunary to March 2009.

remember Japan sales may very well increase more than you may think. 

mainly due to the very fact that Blu-Ray has 70% HD market share in japan, and Blu-Ray has been in the market since 2003 over there

also you are lumping a large area and saying they would not sell more than 1 million over a 5 year period. 

when we for one have no solid data on those regions and 2nd what if sony increases shipment's into some of those areas due to increase demand.

The very fact that Philippines may have already had slim PS3's and were already selling them shows there is prob. quite a bit of Data we do not have access to and its just a guess at what sale's performance will be