Realistic Expectations for the PS3 Slim/Price Cut

[theRepublic]

Squilliam said:

theRepublic said:
For those wondering what it would take for the PS3 to pass the 360 in a meaningful time frame:

The current gap is 8.14 million.

In Q4 2008, the 360 outsold the PS3 by 2 million units. The PS3 did quite poorly (it was down from Q4 2007) and the 360 did quite well (it had its best Q4 ever). I think that is the biggest gap for Q4 that can reasonably be expected.

Let's say the PS3 does that for Q4 2009, Q4 2010, and Q4 2011. That makes the gap 2.14 million.

That leaves 85 weeks (starting now) during the other three quarters of the year to make up the other 2.14 million units. That means the PS3 has to outsell the 360 by 25,000 per week. Since this January, the 360 has outsold the PS3 by about 13,000 per week. That would mean that the PS3 needs to increase its weekly sales by 38,000 per week. That would be an increase of about 28% per week based on this years average sales.

I could see a weekly increase of that magnitude on this price cut being possible. What I don't see happening is Sony dominating three holidays in a row.

If we push out to the end of 2012, it would be easier for the PS3 to catch the 360 (it would need to outsell it by 1.25 million over four holidays with the same weekly increase in the other three quarters as I already laid out), but I don't think it matters at that point. Even if it catches the 360 by the end of 2011, it still doesn't really change anything.

Of course, for Sony to make these kinds of gains, Microsoft would have to not respond for 2+ years. Microsoft has not allowed the 360 to lose a year to the PS3 yet, and I don't think they are going to start now. The most likely scenario is that the 360 stays in second place for the rest of this generation.

That model is too simplistic. For example you'd have to account for declining sales with time so even if the relative gains stay the same, the absolute gains would decline as the market approaches saturation.

Then let's see what you've got.