Well there is some potentially good third party games coming out before Christmas (No More Heroes, SoulCalibur Legends, Nights, Zack & Wiki, Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles). It is true that there isn't that much announced for further down the pipeline, but I think that most publishers are waiting to see how this turn out this holiday season. If Nintendo delivers on their promises of more Wiis in stores, particularly in the US, they may be able to substantially narrow the 360s lead in the US which would make Western developers start to take the Wii more seriously.
If the PS3 doesn't have a substantial turn around this holiday season (and now with the latest price cut it does have a chance) I think that Japanese developers will start backpedaling on their PS3 exclusives and if that happens I think they'll shift more of their resources to the Wii rather than the 360 given the 360's utter irrelevance in Japan.
I think that it's pretty certain that the 360 will have a decent, but not spectacular holiday season, even with Halo 3. So the question comes down to, how many units can Nintendo ship and how many families are willing to spend $400 on a single Christmas gift.
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