8-13 First Day Sales & Some More Famitsu Predictions

[hanafuda]

ioi said:

GT3 sold more because it was bundled and released at a time when the only other game available on PS2 was Final Fantasy X. Those two titles single-handedly sold PS2 during 2001. If you look at the initial sales for GT3 you'd see the game was on track to top out at around 1.3m. If anything, this only futher proves the point that GT sales are on the decline in Japan - you would logically have expected GT4 to outsell GT3 but it didn't. Remove the fact that GT3 was bundled and you have a clear drop in sales with each sequel, that is without the fact that you are moving from PS1 / PS2 to PSP / PS3 which sell far less software in Japan than their predecessors (Monster Hunter Portable aside).

Same situation is true of MGS4 - it sold above expectations due to lack of competition vs MGS3, I don't think it is very indicative (i.e a 20% drop) of what we can expect from GT5 or Final Fantasy XIII.

If 500k seems very low but you don't expect the title to do 1m then what exactly are you expecting?

Maybe 1.5m is a tad high for MH3 but the title should sell to ~1.1-1.2m by the end of the year then I expect a budget release next year which could easily do another 300k+ so I certainly don't think it is impossible.

MH3 is already a budget release... I would think GT PSP can outperform GT5Ps sales. Including downloads. So yeah, 700K+ in Japan over time. GT4 is still selling in thousands in Europe. Of course, the handheld thing is a bit unknown, but PSP is doing well and this game is going to launch close to the Go.