January 2007 NPD Predictions

[TheSource]

I don't think any console sells over 55 million this generation. I say with the expensive pricing around 130 million consoles are sold this generation.. I'd do it like this overall (say in 2011): Japan Wii - 15 million PS3 - 5 million 360 - 1 million Europe 360 - 25 million Wii - 15 million PS3 - 10 million Americas 360 - 25 million Wii - 18 million PS3 - 16 million PS3 - 31 million Wii - 48 million 360 - 51 million I think all three systems become like the Nintendo 64 in some sense because they each offer enhancements. PS3 is most powerful. 360 is most online oriented. Wii is motion sension ready. This leads to 3 Nintendo 64 scenarios where like 5 major developers provide big exclusives to each system to optimize the capabilities...the rest boils down to first party, where Nintendo>Sony>Microsoft in Japan, the three are seen as near equal in America, and in Europe it is probably seen as Nintendo=Sony>Microsoft. In terms of how major exclusive games will be made... Wii PS3 360 ALL Wii and PS3 Wii and 360 PS3 and 360 Nintendo Sony Microsoft EA Square-Enix Ubisoft Take Two That leaves Capcom, Sega, Konami, Namco, Midway, Activision, THQ to supplement the major offerings. I believe that will break down like this: Wii - THQ, Namco, Sega, Midway, Activision, Capcom PS3 - Konami, Sega, Midway, Activision, Namco 360 - Capcom, Konami, Activision, Sega, Midway This is contingent on three huge assumptions: 1) MGS4 goes on 360 and PS3 to cover its enormous development costs... 2) Capcom retains its competent revolution to bring games to the dominant platform (360 America, Wii Japan) 3) Namco and Sega try to pimp out cheap hits alongside expensive to make hits to cover costs.