id's Carmack: We'll See PS4 Before Next Xbox

[Millennium]

I don't think Sony will be first next gen, but I also don't think this will be for lack of trying. The extreme arrogance shown by Sony around the launch of the PS3 (most relevant to this is the "10-year plan" and "future-proof" rhetoric) indicates to me that they probably didn't start work on the PS3 successor right away, as they should have done. I don't doubt they've started by now, but they're playing catch-up: certainly their successor will be the last of the three to be ready.

Of course, both Nintendo and Microsoft have both stated that they want to extend this generation. That's good news for Sony, as it might buy them enough time to push the PS3's successor out the door to be first, but I doubt it. In a Microsoft-Nintendo staredown, one of them will blink first. I suspect that this will probably be Microsoft, as Nintendo has nothing to gain by it but Microsoft does (or at least believes that it does). I also believe that this will happen too soon for Sony to be ready, probably around 2012-2013.