January 2007 NPD Predictions

[TheSource]

Kwaad - I think Sony will catch up some in March. Sony should outsell Nintendo and Microsoft in Europe in March. However, this will be shortlived. Barring a price drop, 360 and Wii hold their own in Japan, selling roughly 1.5-2 times what Sony sells until games like Metal Gear Solid 4 come out. In Japan, Microsoft remains largely irrelevant, and at least short term (till say...June..more likely later), Nintendo has the software to outsell Sony in Japan 3 or 4 to 1. However, because Microsoft has a rapidly shrinking market in Japan, Microsoft's worldwide marketshare will decrease throughout the year more than Sony's. If Sony is to come out on top, eventually, it will not happen at the end of this year for three reasons. 1) Wii will have a 1-2.5 million lead at least Europe by the time PS3 comes out. 360 will be like 3-5 million ahead in Europe by that point. 2) Wii will outsell PS3 in Japan this year because it will be cheaper, because of games like DDR, Smash Brothers, Wii Sports, Galaxy, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, Mario Party 8, Dragon Quest. I'm sure many of Sony's new IP's will do quite well in the West over time. But Japan seems to be growing tired of less social orientated games. Just look at what sold last gen - Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Smash Brothers, Soccer and Baseball games, Mario Party, Dynasty Warriors, Mario, Mario Kart. Although some of these titles will decline in sales, excercise and physical 'training' games have enormous potential in Japan for Wii. At this point Sony needs Kojima, Namco, and Capcom to make PS3 RPGS so Sony remains above niche/360 levels in Japan... 3) Many consumers see PS3 and 360 as roughly the same product, just with a few different sounding bells and whistles. Remember the consumer confusions over 'box shaped consoles' last gen(Gamecube and Xbox)?, Nintendo found a method of differentiation. Sony and Microsoft are relying on abstract ideas about media for differentiation. I do believe the differences will become apparent in later 08' and 09'. But for now, expect Wii to outsell PS3 at rates of 1.5:1 to 4:1...depending on the market.