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I think there used to be this saying that an average HD game needed 500,000 copies to break even. Many of u remmember this.

Now, that's an average game by all publishers, not a game by Sony first party.

Sony first party games are on average a lot more expensive than the average games like Beowulf, Mirros Edge, NBA basket, Pirate of the Caribbien, Bee Movie, Alone in the dark, Far Cry 2, Army of two etc.

Now compare that to Sony first party:

Heavenly Sword
Lair
Uncharted
Motorstorm
Ratcher and Clank
Resistance
KZ2
Infamous

Those games are clearly a lot bigger budget. So break-even point must be several times 500,000 copies. At least 1 million (retail copies, not bundled! Bundled copies don't earn Sony even a dime).