I disagree with your reasoning. You seem to think the lower sales not only mean retailers order less stock, but also still have excess stock. While the lower shipment numbers just as easily mean retailers adjusted their stocklevels to the current levels of demand.
Looking at the Wii sales it doesn't really make sense to me for retailers to still have excess stock. Wii sales in the US slowed down in March already, so retailers should have adjusted their stock levels by now. But with a difference of 700k any undertracking is small, so no real reason for any adustments there at the moment.
I do think other numbers indicate some undertracking though. There haven't been real shortages there for a long time, nor an extreme downfall in demand. I simply can't think of a single reason to have 1 million units in stock there at the end of June.
Japan numbers actually seem to be a bit high compared to shipment numbers, but if I recall correctly that problem existed in earlier quarterly earnings as well. So any adjustment there probably needs to be made in older numbers, not the numbers from the last quarter.
PS3 numbers are harder to judge because we don't have a regional breakdown. Just going by their worldwide sales numbers having over 1 million in stock seems a bit high. But then again, the ratio between stock levels and weekly sales is probably higher for a system with lower sales and 1 million in stock at any given time always seems possible to me. Maybe there is some undertracking in a certain area, but it is impossible to pinpoint the exact place at the moment. I'm actually more doubtful of the 360 number than the PS3 number. Personally I find the 400k stock level for 360 extremely low.
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