binary solo said:
Let's see. PS3 gave up ~ 5million console lead to 360 at launch. 360 lead now is nearing 10 million. If at the time 360 ends its life and the lifetime sales lead is less than 5 million units then PS3 has made a good comeback. If the 360 lead is a little above 5 million then PS3 has made a modest comeback. If the 360 lead is not much different than it is now then there is no comeback and if the 360 lead is more than it is now then that is a downfall for PS3.
WRT the Wii, something similar applies. Indeed if the PS3 can eat into the Wii's lead by any measurable amount, while still being a far more expensive unit, then that will be a pretty good comeback.
If PS3 achieves "good comeback" status vs both Wii and 360 by the end of the generation then momentum will be with Sony, and rehabilitation of the Playstation brand will be virtually achieved. Suggesting Sony needs to achieve PS2-like sales as the basis for a comeback, or that PS3 > 360 (much less >Wii) in lifetime sales is essentially guaranteeing that PS3 will not meet your definition of comeback.
In order for Sony to view this as a successful generation and to comit to the PS4 the PS3 does not need to sell more than the Wii or 360 in lifetime global sales, and it certainly doesn't need to sell at or even near PS2 lifetime sales.
If you think that based on 2009 financial performance that Sony will surely exit the console hardware market then you haven't analysed Sony's report very well. The losses incurred by Sony in FY '09 Q1 are due primarily to things other than PS3 console sales, indeed it would seem the gaming sub-division of the network division probably broke even in the least over that quarter, though thanks partly to the drop in PS3 sales.
Sony will be basing a PS4 decision on the lifetime performance of PS3, not the FY '09 Q1 performance of PS3.
At this point, with a servicable install base, it is in Sony's best interests for PS3 sales to remain low but steady until they can start making a small profit on each unit sold. What they then need is for an acceleration of sales once they turn that corner. If they can achieve profitability with a price cut then that acceleration will occur, and it will be an appreciable acceleration in the least. But it may not be stellar.
Sony must have done some market research on buyer intent to keep its projection at 13 million for FY '09. They must be confident that there is pressure building among 12 million consumers who would like a PS3 but not at the current price. They are probably aiming for the PS3 to sell at the price those 12 million consumers want (or close to it) for long enough in Fy '09 for sales to reach that target by March '10.
Sony will also be banking on a global economic growth and employment rate (or at least job security) turnaround before the holidays hit. And that's the unkown factor right now.
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I like this point. I think if Sony can regain momentum rather than a particular percentage of market share or a lead over the 360 i think they can consider it a successful comeback from their current position (even if gamers don't). What they don't want is to drift out the consciousness of gamers between now and the end of the generation because that will hurt them at the start of the next generation.
