| trestres said: @HappySqurriel: Do your research before writing that much. Fiscal Year is what comes out in every report, not calendar year, so Nintendo hasn't sold 8 million units, but 2.7 million during the first quarter that goes from April to June 2009. They expect 26 million consoles sold between March 09 and March 2010. 2.7 million during the first three months. If we count July then it's 3.5 million in 4 months, which means Nintendo will have to sell 22.5 million more consoles in 8 months. This means 2.82 million consoles sold on average every month for the next 8 months. There's many wrong things with expecting this: Firstly, the Wii is selling about 0.8 million consoles/month going by VGChartz numbers. With August and September being slow months, we can easily expect the Wii to be flat or down from July. Say Wii rises a bit because of WSR and MH3 during September and October (Remember WSR had almost no effect in Wii sales in Japan), even though September is a very slow time, then we can say Wii might sell 1 million consoles/month during these 2 months, putting the Wii at 5.5 million after 6 months. Now there are 6 months to go and 20.5 million consoles that need to be sold during that time. That gives us 3.41 million/month. In 2008 the Wii saw sales of 3.5 million consoles/month during Q4. This year, with sales in a downwards trend, it will be difficult for it to reach those figures for those 3 months. Basically there will have to be 20.5 million Wii consoles sold in between October 2009 and March 2010. Q4 has WF+ and NSMBWii. WF+ will not generate that much more interest than what Wii Fit is already generating, since it's the same game with some added activities, so I don't think people will all of a sudden go crazy over a game that has been available for more than 18 months. NSMBWii is the only game I think will be capable of moving HW, but it won't be that big of a boost. Mario is already an established franchise on the Wii, and with multiple million selling games, one has to wonder how many more people are eager to buy a Wii just for this game. I don't think it will be as popular as the DS one, so you can't say there are at least 10 million people who will buy a Wii for NSMBWii because the first NSMB was on DS and almost 20 million people got it. Those 2 games on their own will have to move 3.5 million Wii consoles/month for 6 months. You think that's plausible? There are no big third party games outside MH3, which will only matter in Japan. There's no Assassin's Creed, CoD, Bioshock or Left 4 Dead sized kind of game coming out for the Wii. Tales of Graces, FFCC:CB will sell well, but never like those games. Rock Band and GH5 are multiplatform games, so they won't have much effect. And there are a lot of big games coming out for both the 360 and PS3 during the last quarter, meaning the Wii will have some very big games to compete against. Wii will probably end at 16 - 18 million sold at the end of March 2010. If there's a price cut, then 18 - 20 million, because I don't think they will cut the price before November, so the impact will be smaller. Share prices determine the value of a company. If Nintendo needs money they can sell shares of the company. If these shares get devaluated a lot, then the amount of money they can get will be limited, and investors won't want to buy them anyways. Share prices matter a lot, that's why they exist, otherwise they wouldn't be doing roundtables after each report is out. |
First off, I understand the fiscal year Nintendo but the shorter term you're looking at sales for the more unreliable your predictions are going to be ...
Beyond that, we can argue endlessly over how "big" of an impact certain games will have, but I do always find it interesting that every game released on the Wii can't move hardware because it is a sequel to a game that has already been released and yet no one makes those claims when it comes to Modern Warfare 2, Bioshock 2, Halo ODST, and (pretty much) any other sequel released to the HD consoles.
"Nintendo" doesn't (really) hold many shares in the company, and if they need money they would tap into the unusually large cash reserves they have as a company. Now, you might see a short term dip in Nintendo's share price following a change in their fiscal forecast for hardware units sold as short term traders sell their shares or short the company; but long term investers are still going to be very pleased with Nintendo's performance because they will probably still be very close to their profit projections for the year. Anyways ... regardless of the number of ways I point out how Nintendo is in a very unusual position for a company their size that they can make decisions based on a longer term horizon because short term share price changes are meaningless to them, I think you will just ignore them and treat Nintendo like a heavily indebted start-up.
