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| NJ5 said: Mummelmann what do you mean by cut short? When do you think we'll see the new console launches? |
Well, some people seem to put faith in Sony's 10 year plan and subsequently, Microsoft's 10 years and one day plan and most, if not all, Wii fans seem (ed) to be of the opinion that the Wii would outlive them still.
That won't happen and I also believe that all three consoles will suffer a fate much more similar to that of the x-box rather than that of the PS2; hardware sales will plummet and stop, software will barely move and the consoles themselves will be discontinued rather quickly after the new ones launch. Keeping three consoles that were (probably) strangled by an economic crisis alive for long after the successor arrives seems illogical to me. I think we'll see a new console or a couple of new consoles by the end of 2011.
As to who will be first out the gate is anyone's guess, you could argue that Nintendo wouldn't stress being first since the Wii is doing well but I think they want to maintain the edge and momentum it has gathered and be quite quick about their bussiness. With the Wii hardware being one generation behind from before I can't really see Nintendo leaving two competing machines that are effectiely two generations more advanced on the market alone for long.
Microsoft have experienced just how big a difference being first can make and will certainly do their best to be efficent this time around as well, hopefully with more emphasis on hardware quality. The entry price would be low imo.
Sony just has to pull out all stops and do all they can, which would include entering the next race early. It is not entirely inconcieveable that they'll be the first on the market next generation despite their current bravado and brazen talk of a 10 year life cycle. The entry price will surely be, if not the lowest of the three, at least competitive (which the PS3's wasn't in hindsight).
In the end, I think we'll see all three consoles and a possible fourth one, launch within 6-9 months of one another next generation, there can be no stragglers and those who arrive early must prove their mettle as well as far as price and quality is concerned! What I'm really concerned about is the next generations probable chasm between console and PC gaming with PC gaming seemingly providing less profits outside of MMO's and the consoles becoming more and more of a "flail box" with their motion controls and overall living room mandatory features (and office space or small bedroom hardly cuts it in this regard).
This gen was the great divide between the consoles themselves, the next one could be about similarity, the struggle to stand out because of it (innovative 1st and 2nd party titles) and the ever growing distance between the PC and consoles as gaming platforms (one can also factor in that consoles seem to be taking over more and more of the PC's media functions in time, still not a real threat but we could easily reach that point within 10 years or so).
