It looks like 500,000 to 600,000 week one. Preorders should get to 350,000-400,000 and then it will probably do 50% more week one.
The real trick is going to be predicting Wii hardware as there is a bundle. I guess 18k Wii is the new baseline, so 18,000, then you have probably a 10k rise from the game itself, after that the bundle. Probably isn't even worth bundling a game for a limited time if you don't sell 20k, 30k. This bundle also includes a new Wii color - Black....
I'm thinking Wii will jump to 40,000 to 70,000 for the week but its too early to narrow it down much beyond that.
Dragon Quest IX did 2.35m week one, and the red DSi was launched alongside it, DS jumped from 55k to 141k - an 86,000 spike. Monster Hunter 3 should have 1/4 the debut alongside a new color, so maybe a 21k jump would be in order (especially since Monster Hunter G, with 135k or whatever week one accompanied a 5k bump). Then you throw in the bundle of MH3 + Wii...I'd say 50,000 or 55,000 is fairly likely.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
