Yup, I suspected the Xbox 360 was over-tracked. The numbers were too good to be true. Now, how overtracked depends on when the SKU changeover happens. However the Arcade changeover happened just recently and the Premium and Elite changeover is about to happen, so its up in the air as to whats actually happening and therefore we should wait for more data.
We don't really know the shipping status of the new Arcade SKU and how much stock has come back into the channel.
We don't really know when the SKU changeover is going to happen, the nearer it is to now the less the console is likely to be overtracked by.
We also don't know what goals Microsoft has with regards to shipment numbers. We've seen them pad shipments and stuff the channel to make their numbers look good, are they holding backsomewhat before the end of the financial year to ensure that next year will continue to show growth?
In the end the +/- 10% really doesn't matter. I don't understand the emotional attachment to the numbers, if the numbers are systematically wrong and people are desperate to hide the fact then when the numbers finally get adjusted the impact will be larger. Don't pray to the numbers, pray for the console I say! 
Tease.
