Wii's downstream market is near complete saturation.

[68soul]

Remember that great old song?

"You can fool some people sometimes, but you can't fool all the people all the time"

Some people have paid 30 to 50 dollars/euros for very bad and very disappointing games, and then you expect them to buy the sequels?

Lots of people in the industry do complain about the Nintendo's monopoly on their own hardware, but fact is, most Wii users know they can trust Nintendo: their games are (nearly always) top quality, and really deserve a full price... while 90% of the games out there (and not only on Wii or DS, btw) are just worth... nothing...

If you want more proof, just take a look at all the copycats out there: how many Nintendogs-like games had the same success as the originals? How many Wii Sports wannabees will have the same impact and the same sales as the original and the brand new sequel?

The industry could copy Mario Kart, Wii Fit, or any brand new "genre" or brand new hit introduced by Nintendo, but without any production value or any originality, how do you expect these games to have HUGE sales?

Nintendo's "core" market knows the deal for many many years, and most newcomers have now got it as well: crappy games are better left on the shelves...

And if some quality games don't find their audience on Wii, it doesn't mean anything: some PS2 games had the same problem, even with a 100 million+ userbase... it's the exact same thing with most records, books, movies out there: quality doesn't always mean success... so you can't blame the Wii or Nintendo if the industry wants to go the "E.T. road" once again...

In the same time, to pretend that a console with so many games in the all-time TOP 50 videogame sales is "saturated" is silly: the Wii may still easily double its userbase, and have many, many future hits... made by Nintendo, or not... but be sure most will be quality games...