Well,
1 sony poised to take over the 30+B$ market of home movies through BR,
2 cheaper PS3's on the way
3 some huge PS brand demographic games on the way
4 costs plummeting
5 led by the financial genius Sir Howard
and many other things, I'd say that we can bury the idea that sony will not have a console out next gen. I know everyone talks about how Nintendo extended the market and expanded the industry, but Sony should also be credited with diversifying their product and taking over an entire movie market. MS got into the console war to prevent PSs from taking the place of computers, but Sony seems to be really expanding instead of contracting. Internet access, wireless, HD, movies, games, Hard drives.... It won't be long until they add a BR-recorder and expand once again. They are doing pretty damn well despite losing ~40% of the VG market due to the wii.
