| Dodece said: I think sometimes we are so mired in a train of thought that we do not stop to take the time to you know puzzle something out. Another poster made a real valid point, and it was basically ignored for what it was. Exclusivity of software is irrelevant to its sales, or the ability of the platform to move said software. How much software pushing power does the PS3 have. Based upon Grand Theft Auto IV we must assume it is very diminished. Last generation San Andreas moved almost eighteen million units on the PS2. This generation Sony hasn't moved six million. That may seem mild until you realize that San Andreas outsold GT4 by eight million units. So We are looking at a sixty six percent decline. So a direct correlation says that GT5 should probably work around three million units. I can hear the teeth grinding stop that. How much has prologue sold being that it filled a four year void. Around three million or so. Probably is telling us something. Then you still have the entire problem of the console falling behind in sales. So it has to achieve a substantial attach rate, and once again as Grand Theft Auto has shown us it just isn't there. Once again the PS3 is not the PS2. You cannot treat them as if they are the same. They are not they have decidedly different demographics, different install bases, and enjoy different market positions. The sales are slipping. They are not increasing. Hell they are not even staying the same. This nonsense that GT5 is going to move ten million copies is utterly moronic. The opening question is a pretty good one. I personally would expect ODST to leave this year doing about five million to six million in sales. With GT5 doing about three to four million. Long term it isn't really a fair assessment. Microsoft isn't going to bundle ODST. Sony will bundle GT5. So it can piggy back console sales. The real question is would it win lifetime without that. I am doubting that Halo 3 sells strong till this day so another game in the series should have similar staying power. Might even hit ten million units in the very long run. |
Its an interesting perspective. However I do feel that the comparison is indicative but not conclusive. The average person would probably only need one racing game in an entire generation whereas GTA 3 could and was likely bought by the same people in each itteration. That means that a release of one GT game would diminish the sales potential of the next significantly whilst the release of another GTA game would not as GTA is also a story based game which differs in experience from one to the next.
Honestly with so much FUD surrounding the release, im in wait to see mode for the actual performance of the game and im in two minds here. On the one hand with a long term for the generation GT5 will continue to sell quite well but on the other hand there are the lesser performances of other PS2 games and the used game market which could cut the legs off the game. 5M sales is almost assured, the question in my mind is what level between 5 and 10M will the game get to?
Tease.
