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Sony has been very, very aggressive on hardware cost savings -- the Emotion Engine chip was removed for the Euro launch, Cell is moving to a 65-nm process, assembly is handled in China, etc. Much faster than I expected, actually. Spreadsheet it out, and even assuming that components fall a meager 25% to 35% a year, Sony could reduce the 60GB to $499 in November 2007 and lose only $60 on every console. If they reduce costs faster, they could break even.  Of course, we're talking only manufacturing - they'll still lose money on marketing and customer service. 

-- DRR