ioi said:
You're being pretty unrealistic there. I'd say that NPD figures aren't even that accurate. I think being within 10% of the actual amount is pretty good really. It is not uncommon to see something like a game selling 41k according to Media Create and 28k according to Famitsu - this level of discrepancy occurs between two large tracking services who each charge around $5000-$10000 per year for their services and poll around 40-50% of retailers in Japan. I think a long term goal of being within 10% is realistic, and short term I'd say we probably are only within around 20-25%. So if we have a figure of 85k it could really be anything from 65k - 105k. But then even if NPD report 85k it could be anywhere from say 75k to 95k in reality. I think a lot of people are naive about the accuracy of all these industry figures. Chart Track who cover over 80% of the UK market (best coverage of any country) had PS3 sales first week at 165k while Sony claimed over 170k. So even there we have a few % difference - we don't know exactly what figures sony track but it is likely to be a very high coverage as well. At the risk of repeating myself, if you want and expect to see worldwide figures that are 95%+ accurate you can expect to pay something like $250,000+ per year to do so - so you'd better be a large company who needs figures to that accuracy. I can't honestly see why anyone not a professional in the industry would want this and if you're happy with 85%-90% accuracy figures (actually likely to be better over time when publisher figures are taken into account and so on) then you are in the right place and we are trying to give you that for nothing. I think it is unrealistic to expect any more than this and I just want to make that clear to everyone now before we get posts saying "NPD said Wii sales were 418,921 and you said 438,123" and so on - to me that would be an amazing correlation and a lot better than I imagine we will actually see. When you take into account the fact that NPD figures also contain a level of estimation and say Nintendo claim to have shipped 431,000 Wiis in March or whatever then I think it would be a great correlation all round. Don't expect correlation to the nearest unit, or even nearest thousand or tens of thousands (for larger figures) and please be patient as we develop our system, coverage and scaling processes. So please just bear all this in mind. |
You make a good point, and we will be able to see just how close it is in a few hours to the "official" NPD data
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)







