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makingmusic476 on 16 October 2007
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TWRoO said:
makingmusic476 said:
carlos710 said:
makingmusic476 said:
Ishy said:
no way 11 million sold by march 08, maybe 9 mill tho

The ps3 should be very close to 9 mil. by the end of the year. Why would it take them until March to sell that many?


Because they wont be close to 9 mil by end of the year.

Im willing to bet on that, they won't reach even 8 million on 2007


Why? Generally, 50% of CE sales occur during the 4th quarter of the calendar year, because of the holiday saeson. For example, last year, the 360 had only managed to sell ~4.5 mil. consoles worldwide by the end of September. However, it managed to sell another ~4 mil. consoles throughout the holidays, bringing it's year end totalsclose to 9 mil. consoles sold. Why would the same not happen for the ps3? Especially with the recent price drops and addition of the 40gb SKU. Not to mention the fact the ps3 is just now getting good games, like R&C5 and Uncharted.


You have that quite right in theory, but quite wrong in numbers.

360 1st Jan 2006 - 1st Oct 2006 = 3.48 million ....(you forgot the 360 was released before Jan)
360 1st Oct 2006 - 31st Dec 2006 = 3.16 million (though this was the first time it had lots of supply everywhere)

so generally the last quarter is almost half the other 3 quarters. (i would argue that its much closer to 50/50 if you use the first 2/3 and the last 1/3....but because of companies using quarter years for financials its easier this way)

--------

360 31st Dec 2006 - 30th Sept 2007 = 3.66 million (i think similar sales to last year for last quarter will be probable...about 3.1 mil)

PS3 31st Dec 2006 - 30th Sept 2007 = 3.65 million (laughably close sales....i expect slightly more than 360 sales for last quarter....about 3.2-3.3 million.....which puts the PS3 at slightly over 8 million)


 Ah. For both the ps3 and 360, I was using numbers from release day until September of the following year, which would've been around 4 mil. for both.  I was wrong about the holiday numbers, you got me there.

Ultimately, the ps3's holiday sales depend on the longevity of the 40gb demand, and the marketing of R&C5 and UNcharted.  If they were to market Uncharted to the level of Gears, it could boost sales a good bit.