Are ten year plans outdated?

[vaio]

Are ten year plans outdated?

 

It seems like SCEE president Andrew House thinks that way. He claims that the PS3 could last significantly longer than ten years. Well, it should. After all the 360 is apparently here to stay for ten years, according to Microsoft representatives, and its technology isn’t as advanced as the PS3’s.

House also believes that Wii owners will eventually upgrade to the PS3 once the price is right, because Sony’s own data suggests that this was also the case in previous generations when gamers switched from the Nintendo 64 to the PS2. That’s not too far fetched, because people in general want to buy a PS3, it’s just that it is still too expensive at the moment. So expect sales to skyrocket once Sony drops the price and introduces a PS3 Slim, possibly coinciding with the release of Gran Turismo 5.

Another positive aspect of the PS3 is that it happens to be a Blu-Ray player that also plays games. Sooner or later people will realize the tremendous value of Sony’s current generation console. Michael Pachter supports this notion and predicts that the PS3 will tie the 360 within the next two years and end up in second place by 2015, primarily due to Sony’s victory in the high definition DVD format war.

And who knows, maybe the PS3 even snatches first place in the long run due to its “significantly longer than ten years” lifecycle. The console war isn’t a sprint, it’s a marathon. With Wii owners upgrading to the more powerful PS3 which will have its own motion controller soon or the 360 with its Natal (although Microsoft calls this process “graduating”), Nintendo’s days of success might be numbered.

This is of course a very optimistic way to look at the future of the video game industry, but it’s still more realistic than the cocky predictions of Nintendo fanboys who want to see the PS3 finishing in fourth place this generation; behind the Wii, the 360 and the Wii Balance Board.