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If the blue line falls below the green line in either of these graphs I will consider the Wii in trouble:

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Total+Other&cons2=PS3&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=PS2&reg3=Total+Other&weeks=156

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=America&cons2=PS3&reg2=America&cons3=PS2&reg3=America&weeks=156

There is no random number that spells doom if 1 week sales fall below it, trends are what is important, the Wii may be falling now, but so is the PS3 and even the X360 (though it is staying more steady than the others)