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madskillz said:
A lot of speculation (PS3 will win) comes from two sources - Sony fanboys and analysts. And they are basing their beliefs on last-gen numbers. They are NOT looking at the parallels - they aren't looking at the fact that exclusives were key to the PS2's success.

Just look at this ... and I am just talking about the 360 vs. the PS3 - the Wii will win, but the 360 will close that gap ...

PS2 vs. Xbox

PS2 - first out of the gate
PS2 - won the hearts of developers
PS2 - won GTA exclusivity for two years
PS2 - had infamous disk read error
PS2 - ended up winning the last-gen war

Xbox - was last out of the stable
Xbox - was rather ackward
Xbox - had a much higher price point that dropped very, very fast
Xbox - was more reliable
Xbox - lost the fight due to the PS2's domination

Now, let's look at this fight - sans the Wii ...

Xbox 360 - first out of the gate
Xbox 360 - is definitely much, much easier to develop for
Xbox 360 - has the 3 rings of death and scratching controversy
Xbox 360 - locked up exclusives, and stole some PS3 exclusives - or bought them ...
Xbox 360 - has a software title that sold 2.6 million copies on the first couple days release

and the PS3

PS3 - last out of the stable
PS3 - much, much more reliable
PS3 - much higher price point
PS3 - very hard to develop, developers say - more than once, mind you ...
PS3 - is history repeating itself? Me thinks so ...

Anyone considering a PS3 should keep this analysis close to your heart ...

One thing that doesn't change between generations are strategies. The 360 may have some disadvantages, but still, it's running the PS2 playbook to a tie and winning ...

Actually, the Nintendo Wii was released a few days after the Playstation 3, therefore, the Playstation 3 was not the last out of the stable.