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Mario comes on November 1st, it's preordered by 700,000 people so it would be huge. PS3 has a chance in this week (which ends on 21th) and the next one (ends on 28th). This week PS3 has a price cut of about ten percent of current price (5000 yens), I think it won't be enough to outsell Wii but it will be pretty close.

In the next week Imabikisou and Eye of Judgment are released. I'm not sure how good they will sell but I think that (with the help of lower price which still will be having effect) it should be enough to surpass Wii.

Of course when Mario comes PS3 reign will end lasting only one week in my prediction.

So my answer is: Yes, PS3 will pass Wii in Japan, but won't keep for long.