I still don't think the 360 will get a much of a price cut this year. The base price for the console won't dip below $179, if it ever gets lower than $199 (this year, I mean).
As you said, sales are up 17% year on year, and last year they were up over the previous year. Sales are great for the 360, despite a recession and other factors working against it. I can't see another price drop doing all that much to increase sales unless it's a drastic price cut. If an $80 cut (30%) could only increase sales 17%, another price cut only a year later won't do much more.
It's like the GameCube dropping to $99. I mean yeah, it'll boost sales to a degree, but the console's fate for the most part is already sealed. Might as well wait until sales start to dip to drop the price again. I mean, look how long Sony waited to drop the ps2 from $129 to $99.
I think Engadget's "mole" is closest to the mark. Replacing the Pro with the Elite SKU is a way for them to do a price drop of sorts and increase sales without really losing any revenue. I think they'll do that this holiday season, then ride things out until the end of 2010 when they'll re-launch the 360 with Natal, doing some DSi-like upgrades to the system overall. That'll be their big chance to capture a larger part of the market.
I don't think their focus at the moment is to increase sales of the 360 as is. I think their focus is to simply keep the momentum they have going until Natal is ready and they can try and shake up the market.
