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HappySqurriel on 18 April 2007
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davygee said:
Darc Requiem said:

Well actually my numbers are off. I just recalculated them. I didn't use enough months. There are 20 months until the end of 2008 and 32 months until the end of 2009. That being the case. The PS3 needs to outsell the 360 by 326,000 units a month and the Wii by 177,000 units a month to equal each consoles sales by 2008. As for the end of 2009, the PS3 needs to outsell the 360 by 204,000 units a month and the Wii by 110,000 units a month.


I think the PS3 will be in 2nd position by the end of 2008 and will be pushing for first by the end of 2009 or during 2010.

Rough workings out based on my opinion are:

End of 2007 - Wii: 16m, 360: 15m, PS3: 10m 

End of 2008 - Wii: 26m, 360: 19m, PS3: 22m

End of 2009 - Wii: 31m, 360: 21m, PS3: 30m


Personally, I think you're being far too optimistic on sales of the PS3 and far too pesimistic on the sales of the Wii; in fact I can't recall a single system seeing their sales reduced to 2/3 of their first year sale in their second year, and then again being reduced to 1/2 of those sales in the third year. Typically sales follow a pattern in that they are similar to the previous year (possibly as low as 80%) or better than the previous year. Using 16 Million as the estimate for 2007, the lowest I would expect the Wii to be at the end of 2008 would be 28 Million, followed by 37 Million at the end of 2009; a more reasonable estimate would probably be in the 40 Million to 50 Million range.