Over take WiiFit, not a chance in hell. Infact I doubt it will break the lifetime sales of MarioKart either. Now you can argue that similiar bundles like WiiFit and WiiPlay have both garnered huge sales, both titles had far more advantages then WiiSportsResort! What advantages?
WiiPlay for example, the second most successful title on the Wii debut at a time when a coontroller was hard to find. I remember I couldn't find controllers anywhere. I didn't want to buy WiiPlay but for ten extra dollars I decided I was willing to pay that to get another controller. I know many other people did the same thing. It was all over N-Sider (Nintendo's official forums). Hundreds of Nintendo hardcore fans were rushing to stores to buy WiiPlay so they could finally get a second controller. I know of people who bought three WiiPlays so that they had 4 controllers. WiiPlay sold out of nessecity and practicality not due to actual interest in the title.
WiiFit , launched in North America the most obese continent on the globe and found more success in the United States the most obese country on the globe soully because people want to loose weight with little effort. I remember reading in the news that many leading Gym's saw declines in membership when WiiFit was launched because people were wanting to pay less to get in shape. People would rather play a video game then work out in a gym. WiiFit sold largely to soccer moms and obese people wanting so much to be in thinner better shape. Nintendo was extremely smart to launch a fitness product. Also like WiiPlay the only way to get the Balance Board was to buy a copy of WiiFit, today the balance board isn't that supported but the hardware and the aspect of getting thin sold WiiFit.
MarioKart/SmashBros...etc...etc... These are Nintendo top tier games and Nintendo's most profitable franchises. It is possible that WiiSportsResort will ship upwards of eight mill it might beat out SmashBros may even pose a challenge to MarioKart but I highly doubt it will over take MarioKart and join the likes of WiiFit or WiiPlay. Beating Nintendo's name brands will be a big enough challenge! Of course as many pointed out WiiSports was bundled with every console so that will serve as superb advertising for WiiSportsResort. It may but not likely, as many have pointed out WiiSports only sold because it was bundled with the Wii hardware if it handn't been bundled it would have only sold a couple million copies.
So why will people pick up WiiSportsResort? A few die hard Nintendo fans will pick up WiiSportsResort and a few casual gamers will pick up WiiSportsResort. But Nintendo is bundling WiiMotionPlus with tons of games that should see big success least of which is RedSteel2 (Where I'll be getting WM+). The hardware factor is greatly effected because motion plus will be easy to find in stores and gamers won't be required to have WiiMotionPlus for anything other then a few titles (Unlike WiiPlay). So at best it could see sales up like WiiFit, but after you take the healthy living factor out and you remove the hardware dependability. You've got just another tech demo!
I think WiiSportsResort will ship a million copies month one, probubly ship another million copies this fall with another million copies next spring. But will taper off shortly after. It won't have legs. I'd say life long sales of around 5-8 million at best but at worst and more likely 3-4 million!
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
