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I think you're all wrong on the long term success. Don't forget CoDWaW is a M title and Conduit is a T title on a family console. That will make a huge difference. CoDWaW is also a gimped version of the HD title so it'll get 0 purchases from multi-console owners. Conduit might pick up some (in fact one of my sons friends came over, tried it and wants to get it - he's a 360/Wii owner)

Conduit doesn't have the brand name of CoD but once this gets into homes of teens and preteens especially watch word of mouth to give it strong legs.

I see this doing 2m+

For the first 5 weeks 300-350k seems about right.