I would say the 360 wasn't selling well this year until Halo 3's release, and that could be attributed to 1) anticipation for a price drop, and 2) the RROD and impending Falcon chipset. Even so it has been selling better than the PS3, and steadily increasing it's lead over that system.
The real tell for either system will be this holiday's sales. Sony will have the newer, cheaperish models on the shelves, and the 360 will have the Falcon sets, Halo 3, and at least a marginal price drop in place. However, the PS3 would have to have a nearly unprecedented turnaround, or 360 an unprecedented collapse, in order for the 360 to be overtaken in 1 year's time. The best I think Sony can hope for is to regain respectability this holiday, close the gap in 2008, and then, maybe, make a run for #2 in 2009. But again, I think that's the best chance. I think the more likely outcome is either the 360 maintaining it's lead for several years.
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