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I predict 700.000 launch and 1.000.000 1st week. I wouldn't be surprised if it would be higher because people are looking forward for the next real Mario game for ages! Also Mario will be the biggest title amongst all titles to welcome the end of the games drought.

If a mediocre game and spinoff like Dragon Quest Swords can pull off 300.000 first week to an install base of 3 million. Expect Galaxy to crush those numbers and boost hardware if possible. If it's true Nintendo has been stockpiling millions of Wii's... November 1 would be the perfect time to flood the market with Wii's. And if that happens, my estimates are way too low.