I'm rather on the fence about this topic. I'm a sole wii owner (though I count myself as a wii60 since I play my brother's 360 just down the road), but Nintendo has yet to fully convince me that it's going to win this gen.
On the negative points, Dodece has made a few points that I share that concern me. Wii right now has only a small lead over the 360 in WW sales (which is now shrinking thanks to Halo 3). But when you pay attention to stories on the news, morning shows, even Nintendo you see alot of consoles are being sold to retirement homes, bars, cruise lines, little girls, middle aged women ect. A demographic that will buy few if any games in the consoles lifespan. And the retirement home isn't going to buy Fatal Frame IV for their patients, they might get brunswick pro bowling (which got ambysmal reviews, still not at wii sports level quality) but nothing that serious 3rd parties would care to invest money in. Same for an 8 year old girl, of 35 year old woman looking for exercise. Taking that into consideration the 360 looks alot more promising to third parties, for it's actual gamer base is probably larger than the wii's even with the wii's higher numbers right now.
Also 3p are all about money, but they are also run by humans, not robots. They won't necessarily make the smartest decisions, and may very well be stubborn. Anybody that's spent some time in the business world knows alot of companies are very poorly run, and you could get a chicken to peck at a board and make better decisions than some CEOs and ect. 3rd parties may just stick with the 360, or even stubbornly try to push the PS3 to success losing millions in the process. It's possible that they may not give serious support the wii because they are dumb.
On the positive side though I agree with alot of things Naznatips has said as well. It will be a gradual shift of support rather than all of the sudden awesome games suddenly come out in January. It will take time, the DS is a good example. Third parties love the DS now. And the cancelling of projects for 360 and PS3 to move them to the wii is a promising sign for the wii.
Ultimately I just don't know yet. I honestly couldn't make a prediction either way. I think it's possible this could end up being the first gen that has no conclusive winner. I will take a wait and see attitude towards it.
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