Wii´s one-two punch in Japan! Knock out?

[samus aran rules]

txrattlesnake said:

Soriku said:

txrattlesnake said:
These games aren't going to be a knockout punch for the Wii because the Japanese love themselves some hd gaming and when it comes to hd gaming they love hd gaming on the ps3 the most which also has some heavy hitters headed its way in Japan later this year in Gran Turismo 5 and Final Fantasy XIII.

My current prediction for end of gen console sales in Japan.

Wii -- 20 million
PS3 -- 12 million
360 -- 2 million

Those games will help Nintendo win this gen in Japan but they're not going to change the fact that a lot of Japanese gamers enjoy playing games in hd and their favorite hd console is the hometown boy the PS3.

When do you expect this gen to end? Because in 2.5 years, the PS3's still at 3.25 mil. At this pace I don't see how it'll reach 12 mil, even with FF. Not like there hasn't been a ton of main series already released for it.

I don't even know if the Wii will hit 20 million.

I don't think GT5 will be released this year (though I've always thought this way, I'm not changing this prediction until Sony goes ahead and confirms it) though I think EU *could* get it this year.

But like kylohk said it's not like the HD consoles are gonna die or anything :P

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@OP

How do you know Samurai Warriors 3 will release Sept 29? All other sites list it as TBA.

     I think this gen will definetly be over for Microsoft and Nintendo by November 2012, and I think it will last a little longer for the PS3.

I think the PS3 will be at 5 million units sold in Japan by the end of March 2010.  And, I think GT5 will be out by the end of this year releasing in November '09 to coincide with the 10th anniversary of GT2 and the fifth anniversary of GT4.  Its release date will be officially confirmed at TGS '09 and FFXIII will release in December.

Here's how I see the PS3 reaching twelve million.  GT5 and FFXIII will take it into the five million range.  FF Versus XIII will take it into the 6 to 7 million range.  This growth will cause most Japanese companies that want to make HD games to work mainly on PS3 exclusives as no game is really going to give the 360 much of a significant bump in Japan especially after GT5, FFXIII, and Versus come out in Japan.  If Versus doesn't quite move the PS3 to 7 million on its own, by the time FFXIV releases  in Japan there will definitely be 7.5 million PS3s sold there.

Its going to take a couple of "if"s to move PS3 up to 12 million.  Capcom hasn't denied the possibilty of a Monster Hunter coming to PS3 (so I feel that if the PS3 grows as I've already predicted that will lead to a Monster Hunter maybe Monster Hunter 4 on PS3) and with the success of XIII, Versus, and XIV, Square will probably want to bring another exclusive to the PS3.  If that is Kingdom Hearts III, then that puts the PS3 at 12 million in Japan by the end of the gen. 

The PSP has done it, and I am almost certain the PS3 will as well. 

Yes that is a lot of if´s. You could be right, only time will tell. But if I should speculate in favor of Wii then:

I think that Wii is such a huge hit for Nintendo that they do wanna ride on it´s coattail for as long as possible. Wii already has Dragon Quest X annonced and we all know that the game most likely won´t be coming for another couple of years, 2011-2012 at the earliest which must mean that the console will have a long life still in Japan. 

 Dragon Quest X brings out another question. Shouldn´t S-E want to support the platform that they have chosen to put their very biggest franchise on with more games? I know that they have done this with both PS1, PS2 and NDS. I find it hard to believe that they choose to put their strongest card on a console and not do their bit to support Wii more. That makes me think that there will be more S-E games for Wii (Kingdom Hearts 3 perhaps).

 If Monster Hunter 3 is a huge succes which I think it will be then I cannot see Capcom switching Wii for PS3 but we will see. I think that we differ the most  in our view of where this generation will be over for Wii. Even IF nintendo were to release the followup to Wii in 2012 (I´m not sure they will actually) the console is so big that it will continue to live for a couple of years in Japan just like PS2 has (Dragon Quest X will solidify that if nothing else)