To all of those that think SEGA's both hardcore games bombed.

[HappySqurriel]

txrattlesnake said:

HappySqurriel said:

txrattlesnake said:
According to my math, they both needed to sell 750,000 copies in order to bring true profit to their publisher, and I don't think either one has reached 750,000 yet.

(games and movies have to earn twice what they cost to make in order to earn satisfactory profit, so if both games cost $30.00 in the store and they took ten million to make. They would have to earn back 20 million dollars (24 million counting advertising), so if they sold a million that would be 3 times what they cost to make and more than enough to justify sequels. If they sold 500,000 copies, they would only be earning 1.5 what they cost to make which isn't enough. So, they both needed to sell 750,000 to earn back twice what they cost to make.)

So, I guess we can conclude by your math that Metal Gear Solid 4 and Killzone 2 didn't bring a true profit to their publisher ...

Well, they're working on it. MGS 4 will be selling more copies as a greatest hits game when the PS3's audience goes over 5 million in Japan probably by the end of March 2010 following the releases of GTA III and FFXIII as PS3 exclusives in Japan later this year.

And, Killzone 2 might not appeal so much to Japanese gamers for it to get a real boost in sales as the PS3's Japanese sales numbers continue to grow. However the strengthened support from Japanese devleopers for the PS3 which will be coming the PS3's way in the wake of the sales growth I mentioned previously that will cause definite distinction between the PS3 and 360 libraries later in this gen may lead more people to pick up Killzone 2 later in the gen.

Of course, I don't know how much it cost to make either MGS4 or KZ2. If it cost 60 million to make both MGS4 and KZ2. Then priced at $60.00 at launch, if they sold 1 million copies each they would be breaking even at one million sales, but to get the satisfactory profit I wrote about before, then MGS 4 would have to sell 2 million copies and KZ2 would have to sell 2 million copies. MGS 4 has already sold 4 million copies, so it is probably making a profit and it looks to me to be fairly likely that KZ2 will sell more than 2 million copies.

 

Your assumptions are very poor ...

First off, Killzone 2 and Metal Gear Solid 4 have had some of the largest development and marketing budgets of the generation and a $60 Million combined budget for each game seems like a massive underestimate. After all, Killzone 2 was estimated at 45 Million Euros before it saw a year delay, and Konami bragged about a 200+ person development team on Metal Gear Solid 4 which took over 3 years to complete.

Beyond that, selling a game for $60 in store would translate to (close to) $25 revenue for a third party publisher after retailer profit, physical costs (production and distribution), and licencing fees; it would be more for a first party game, but any assumption that is beyond $35 is laughable.

If Konami needed to double their costs to justify Metal Gear Solid 4 being made, Metal Gear Solid 4 would never have been produced ...