My view is this.
Too many variables still to know for sure, but.
ps2 became strong when it hit the 200$ price point, So the ps3 will also when it hits 300$. Until then it will not gain on the wii. Basically due to the price point in the lifespan of the blue ray, they have delayed the 300$ price point by 2 years. So it will be at 300$ approx 2 years later than the ps2 was at 200$.
360 is designed after the gamecube - at least component pricing wise, thus it can lower in cost at the same rate as the gamecube did. This will prove to fend off ps3 price decreases until the ps3 hits 300$, in approx 3-4 years.
Exclisives will slide to the 360 and wii due to supply base and developer profitibility, until ps3 picks up steam. Mabey end of 2008 will the ps3 match the 360.
Wii will replace the ps2's base and get as many or more excusives as the ps2 had due to its userbase, you can have awesome exclusives with the only downside being the graphics which not enough of the gaming population have the hardware to matter on HD yet.
When ps3 hits 300$ HD TV's may have penetrated 40-50% of homes and thus become viable enough to take over as people's main console.
Main consoles are determined by what people can afford and by how many AAA titles are made for it. More will be made for a console with cheaper costs and a greater userbase = higher profits.
Wii will 2 to 1 the 360 and ps3 until the 360 is 300$ for the premium, 200$ core, and 360 will match WII in sales when it is only 50$ more than the discounted wii (150$ vs 200$) approx.
ps3 will take probably 2-3 years (6-7 total to possibly catch the wii) assuming it has a 100$ drop per year for 3 years. If it does not, it will never catch the wii because the wii will hit ps1/ps2 level of sales. All it needs is greater production, and AAA titles. Graphics hinder AAA titles, not enhance them. Higher costs = less AAA titles. Gameplay beats graphics, all WII needs is AAA gameplay and the rest will fall into place. Thus ps3 needs 300$ price point before it can compete.
Everyone knows the ps3 is better hardware, just no one cares about hardware until its reasonable.
Price point and AAA titles are all that matter, Price 1st, AAA titles 2nd.
All the upcoming ps3 games, Fine, million system sellers, but its not cummulitave million system sellers.
Alot of the million will be sharing the same million with the other games. After the 1st Million system seller hits, the rest will sell 100k worldwide tops. Everyone else will wait for the next price drop.
I personally hope the ps3 drops to 300$, as I predict, this will ensure we get games AAA's that use the superior hardware. But that wont be for a few years. hardware max never happens till approx year 3 of a system.
