How much sales potential does the Wii really have?

[c0rd]

Hrm, I have trouble following some of your logic / conclusions. 

Because these games, which are all main installments of each franchise, sold an average of 7M, we will make an assertion that this number represents the traditional "core" gamers. (Core being defined by the buying habits of past purchasers)

Can you do a similar example with the HD consoles? In particular, try the PS3. I just don't think this assertion makes much sense.

Let's take that "traditional core" number and add it to the wii fit owner number, under the assumption that those two groups know what they want and seldome buy things they don't, given a certain amount of variability. There of course will be some overlap, but it has been noted by several people that sole ownership of wii fit is common.

When you say "sole ownership of wii fit," does that mean that's the only game they have? The attach rate for the other 30mil owners would end up being ridiculously high. Not only that, but Wii Fit came out just last year, and has so far sold over 20mil. I mean, I know the game is a system seller, but that's seriously pushing it.

I'm not sure what the last part is supposed to mean, either. Are you implying all core gamers bought SMG? If anything, if those 3 added up close to the Wii's userbase, it should be proof there are far more than 8mil core gamers. I mean, the biggest attach rate we see on HD consoles (assumed to be all core gamers) is Halo 3, with ~1 game sold per 3 consoles.