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This question is being posted in response to Marvelous crying about wii sales of their games.

Wii currently has 50.8M sold around the world.

The top 4 games compromise the most archetypal example of Nintendo's expanded audience strategy.

1 Wii Sports Nintendo 1,480 N/A 45.57m 23rd May 09
2 Wii Play Nintendo 809 N/A 23.50m 27th Feb 09
3 Wii Fit Nintendo 2,170 N/A 20.14m 23rd May 09
4 Mario Kart Wii
Read the review
Nintendo 2,231 8.7 16.19m 20th Aug 08

Here are some things we can draw from these 4 games and their sales:

1. Wii sports and the Mii character gaming are the fundamental backbone of the Nintendo experience to which "new" gamers are introduced.
Wii Play, aka: Hajimete no Wii (はじめてのWii?, lit. "Starting with the Wii"), backs up this assertion.

2. Wii play should be the exactly what most owners are looking for, as it comes with an extra controller for about 5-10$ extra. From this we can guess that either 28M do not own a second controller, did not find value in Wii Play, or are unaware of the bundle.

3. Wii fit, is currently sold to 20M consumers. How many of these owners also buy other games is not known.

4. MKWii is interesting in that it appeals to both old time fans, and new expanded audience fans due to it's ease.

.

5 Super Smash Bros. Brawl
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Nintendo 1,130 9.2 8.47m 05th Mar 09
6 Super Mario Galaxy
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Nintendo 1,845 9.6 7.98m 12th May 09
7 Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Sega 530 N/A 6.96m 22nd Feb 09
8 Mario Party 8 Nintendo 279 N/A 6.56m 01st Feb 08
9 The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Read the review
Nintendo 713 9.3 5.28m 09th Jan 09

This is where things get interesting.

The next 5 games on the list are relatively traditional Nintendo fan games, with the exception of the Olympics game, which still however features Mario and old time rival Sonic. I will be talking about these games as a group, but it is worth noting that I do not include M&S in any of that.

The top two, are easily the most popular of the Nintendo franchises, save for Mario Kart. Here is what we notice:

1. The top two each carry about 8M in sales and the average for these top titles averages about 7M

2. After Zelda, we see the biggest drop in sales for the next highest game, which acts as a good divider.
That game is Guitar Hero and is roughly 4.2M in sales

3. Because these games, which are all main installments of each franchise, sold an average of 7M, we will make an assertion that this number represents the traditional "core" gamers. (Core being defined by the buying habits of past purchasers) This is an important number which will be used later for other ideas.

 

Let's take that "traditional core" number and add it to the wii fit owner number, under the assumption that those two groups know what they want and seldome buy things they don't, given a certain amount of variability. There of course will be some overlap, but it has been noted by several people that sole ownership of wii fit is common. Given the smaller 3rd party IP sales and "expanded audience" game sales, we will assume that the "traditional core" seldom leaves it's demographic.

Together, that gives us 28 Million. What is interesting, is that the sales of these two games shows an almost constant rate

Weeks ago wii fit+SMG
Wii Play total/ total wii sold
10 25.8M 22.7 48.5/48.6

20

22.5M

21.2

43.7/45.2

30 17 16.7  33.7/36
you can see that the ratio is almost exact everytime for the past 30 weeks. This is interesting because it reinforces the idea that there are  3 separate demographics in a simplistic sense. People that buy the traditional core games, people that buy wii fit, and people that buy Mii games (more casual type games).
What this research has shown is that, at least in some way, nearly half the wii audience is not that interested in most non flagship/ traditional titles. On top of that, the more casual audience does not have a fixed focus on the types of games they buy, shown by the large dropoff after zelda, which is only carried by other big name titles like guitar hero, nintendo character games/1st party, and mini-game compilations.
This took about half an hour, so there are probably some gaps in the idea. However, it should be noted that evidence against the idea is not evidence destroying the idea, it is only a point that revisions should be made to it.
Thanks