PS3 - Reclaiming number one in 08/09'

[shams]

The PS1 did get off to a slow start (consoles weren't really mainstream back then), and the N64 did almost overwhelm it. But the N64 slowed, and eventually died (the darkest period in Nintendo's history IMO) mainly due to pricing/technical issues (forced developers away from it).

Nintendo did not have any CD tech, and carts (2-8MB) just couldn't compete with cheap CD media - especially when "FMV" was in full swing (due to poor 3D graphical nature of the consoles). The N64 was also underpowered in the end (prettier polys, but less polys rendered at anytime - and a weaker CPU, and general architecture).

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The biggest challenge the PS3 has is this (IMO):

To "win" this generation, they have to outsell the Wii. And at the rate that the Wii is selling/being supported, this is going to be EXTREMELY difficult. All the trends are pointing to the Wii picking up steam, and the PS3 underperforming.

By the time the PS3 picks up some steam at the end of the year (Sept?), the Wii may already have a 5-6m unit headstart.

I really do believe the PS3 will go the way of the PSP - it will be successful, and have some awesome games. It will however not take the #1 spot in overall, worldwide hardware sales (ever) - and will end up with a public perception of being 'beaten' by the Wii.

 

The unknown factor is this: In 3-4 years time (assuming the Wii is still selling well), will Nintendo release the Wii 2 (say Wii x10 gfx, extra features, etc...) - or will they keep pushing the Wii, and allow Sony to release the next console first.

Surely if the PS3 is "beaten" as I describe below, Sony will have to change their strategy for releasing the next console? Maybe a PS3 "lite", with Wii style controls (or something even more hardcore?).

Maybe Sony will release something like that in the next 2 years (to compete with the Wii), and support the PS3 as well?? (unlikely, but possible...)