Will the 360 over take the Wii long story short I highly doubt it. May it over take the Wii temporarily its about a 50/50 chance but in the long run I think Nintendo's got this round in the bag.
Right now the temporary boost in 360 hardware sales can be almost soully contributed to Halo3. I expect the sales to continue to do terrifically through the Christmas season. However Nintendo has Mario:Galaxy coming out in November along with a cheaper price tag. When parents rush out to buy their kids console this Christmas console price and Mario will become major factors.
Japan is another reason I doubt Microsoft will over take Nintendo. The software lineup in Japan is way to good and will increase Nintendo's sales by a sizable portion this holiday season. So with Mario who I bet will ship about a million hardware units and about two million copies by January I think Nintendo has a very good chance of hanging on to their lead.
In the long run meaning largely next year. The delay of SmashBros till February is pretty disturbing however it gives Nintendo a very strong start to the new year one which neither Sony or Microsoft can challenge. Then when Sony and MS get GTA Nintendo launches MarioKart.
Perhaps the biggest thing working in Nintendo's favor is what Nintendo hasn't shown us. At this years E3 and the following trade shows including Nintendo's own, only a small handfull of games have been announced (MarioKart,WiiFit) and a handfull of Wiiware titles. What am I getting at, Nintendo has what about 60-internal first and second party studios globally. All those studios and nothing to show, Nintendo is holding back big time and I can guarantee that they are preparing for a major fight in 2008.
With only two or so new games confirmed from Nintendo you have a good 20- or so unconfirmed titles (Not rumoured titles) titles that Nintendo is no doubt developing but hasn't told us about. I mean this is the least amount of games I think I've ever seen Nintendo announce in a new year. Obviously the beginning of an ambitious software drive. While we all wait for Nintendo's upcomming landslide of first party games third parties have time where they dominate which helps Nintendo tremendously and so far seems to be enough for the Wii to maintain slight dominance.
So long story short the race might be tight but come next spring and summer Nintendo will unleash hell and Microsoft will be left in the dust. Of course Fable , BanjoThreeie and HaloWars might help Microsoft survive the onslaught with a decent market share but not in any way will they retake the market!
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
