I think it's possible, but largely due to bundles outside of WSR. I mean it comes with Tiger Woods, Grand Slam Tennis, WSR, and Red Steel 2 that we know of. The combined total of all four of these games sold could very well be 20 million or above. It's a tough pill to swallow, but it is possible.
Tiger is gauranteed to sell bare minimum over 1 million (08 and 09 both cleared a million easy on wii), and with all the talk could quite possibly clear two million. Anecdotally, alot of people that don't normall buy golf games are buying Tiger Woods 10, so it will likely do better than the last two. Grand Slam Tennis will probably hit a million (Every tennis game on wii has only sold 700-800k, but this has considerably more hype than any other which should be good for at least another 200k I would think). Red Steel 2 is actually getting attention now, and is the first "core" game to use wii motion+ and will probably get more attention that your average wii FPS. I think it has a good shot at clearing a million if it comes out this holiday season.
That leaves WSR to have to sell around 15-16 million. That's a very hard pill to swallow, but on the other hand it is the sequel to the single most iconic game of this generation. I think the sales of this game are going to be a surprise. They will either blow us all away, or sell way less than we expect.
As for actual adoption rate, even if it clears 20 million this year it has to be considered how many of those are in the same household. I will probably buy both tiger woods and wsr and probably red steel 2 (hopefully unbundled, I doubt I will need more than 2 WM+). How many of the 20 million will be in the same house?
It will be interesting to see how well people adapt to this new subtle upgrade. It's not a big board after all, it's a tiny little cube. Will it click with the average wii consumer that this is an important product? Interesting stuff indeed.
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