Lifespan of the Wii?

[Shane]

DS domination is not entirely based on Nintendo's previous monopoly, but it is largely the result of it. I'm not a big Gran Turismo fan. What I meant was that it's the biggest global property. It can move millions in all three territories. The only thing I'd put in the same category is Final Fantasy, which also happens to be a PS3 exclusive. All publishers will release games for Wii whether it's first or third. That's not the issue. It's what kind of games they're releasing. Gamecube had what was close to a record setting launch (if not for Xbox), even though it fell off a cliff immediately after the hype died. DS is selling better than GBA ever did... in Japan. It's falling way short here. At 28 months, GBA was at 15.5 million units. DS is at 11.8 million. I'm curious to see how the GTA sales go down. Seems to be people think it's a foregone conclusion it will sell better on 360, but the PS3 version doesn't have to compete with Halo. As far as Nintendo's failure, we go back to how they had no major third party support. Wii needs more than just a bunch of exclusives put together in some guy's basement. People are buying the more expensive machine, but we go again to how the PS3 won't be $600 forever. Nintendo's stated for years they aren't part of the tech race, that gameplay was the most important thing, and that they thought that the focus on graphics was problematic. This isn't new. I'm not gonna convince people who believe it is new otherwise, as apparently they have not been paying attention to Nintendo's repeated statements of this nature long before Wii was even a factor. Sony can drop $100 at a pop. How many times can the others do that? Microsoft: once. Nintendo: zero. It's still not an attractive price until we see around $400, but they have a lot of room to move and several years to do it. The most sensible option at this time is to publish major games on both PS3 and 360. What third party killer apps (or even close to it) does Nintendo have? Even many Nintendo supporters don't expect them to get much. Wii is a good platform to develop for. It's just not a good platform to spend a lot of time on. This is the prevailing wisdom among third parties. A few months won't change that. Another year if all things remain constant might. Don't see how a top 10 of both systems proves your point. On the Wii side, we've got all 5 games Nintendo's released (including all of the top 4) alongside the third party games. On the PS3 side, it's primarily third party games, and the numbers aren't that different from the Wii numbers, despite half the userbase. I still don't see how Nintendo's tapped the casual crowd this early. This seems to be merely an assumption, though I'm really not sure what this is based on. Apparently the "surprising" success of the sequel to the system that sold 120 million units and not much more. 1+ million units a month does not allow them to both continue at the same pace and also have 9 million units available for the 4th quarter. People are just picking numbers to see who can win the contest to pick the most outrageous one. I'm waiting for the first estimate to use the word gazillion. Gears of War isn't doing Microsoft any good? Huh? Sony didn't pay for Motorstorm and Resistance... they just paid to market them. Which is a page out of the handbook Nintendo used to have. Sony issued a sales goal? Sony ever issues sales goals? Nintendo hasn't released games like Mario and SSB yet. If third parties can't even compete with Warioware, they're going to have some serious trouble when those games come around. It's a sad, sad day when people start pimping Cooking Mama as a system seller.