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I think Forza 3 will outsell GT5 if:

-MS puts alot of advertising this holiday to really promote this game as the "definitive racer"

-GT5 doesnt release until Spring or Fall 2010 (most likely)

-Forza 3 will be patched/upgraded to be playable with Project Natal on launch next fall (ala Burnout Paradise technical demo but with more refined controls)

I think people would have laughed last gen if you told them the next Mario Kart would hit 20 million while the next gen Gran Turismo would be lucky to hit 10 million... so anything is possible